A private log of every prediction you make — or get sent by someone else — checked automatically against what actually happens.
Write down your reasoning the moment you place a trade. Chad grades it once the real-world result is in, so over time you can see who’s actually good at this — including you.
Every trade follows the same loop — logged once, tracked automatically, scored honestly.
You get a reason to believe something
A friend's tip, a Discord call, a headline, or just your own hunch about how something plays out — a game, an election, whether the Fed cuts rates.
You back it with real money
Prediction markets like Kalshi let you bet on yes-or-no questions about real events, at real odds — you place that trade.
You write down why, in Chad
Your reasoning, how confident you are, and where the tip came from — yourself, a friend, a Discord group — logged right alongside the trade, in seconds.
The real world decides
The game ends, the vote gets certified, the number comes out — whatever the question was, it gets a real answer, and the market pays out.
Chad tells you if you were right
Automatically — no spreadsheet to update. It scores the call against what you predicted, and against everyone else's track record too, not just this one bet.
You get sharper every time
Every graded call builds your history. Share results, export the data, and see the patterns — including which sources, yourself included, are actually worth trusting.
Kalshi trades import automatically and organize themselves by category — sized by how much is riding on them, colored by outcome, with the real dollar amount right on the node.
Log a thesis every time you have one, and Chad builds the running record for you — the pattern in what you've tracked is what actually refines your prediction market picks over time.
A thesis isn't just a bet — it's the specific read that got you there, the alpha that's yours alone. Local-first keeps it that way: everything lives on-device by default, exportable as plain Markdown you (or any other tool) can read without this app. Nothing shared unless you choose to.
---
ticker: "KXNBA-26-DEN"
title: "Nuggets win the West"
confidence: 72
source: "myself"
status: correct
category: "Basketball"
date_opened: "2026-06-14"
traded_on: "Kalshi"
---Every resolved thesis becomes a shareable trade slip — the same image you’d download and post.
The local core above works fully today. Everything here is planned, not promised — no ship dates yet.
AI agents
An agent that reads your own history to refine your second brain, and helps surface markets worth a look based on your preferences and risk tolerance.
Cross-device sync
End-to-end encrypted sync across devices, paid tier.
Publish, expanded
Richer public track-record pages, more customization.
Open API / plugin support
Let the community build integrations, Obsidian-style.
Tracked accounts
Automatically pull in new posts from X accounts you follow, instead of pasting links manually.
Multi-platform markets
Support for prediction markets beyond Kalshi (e.g. Polymarket).